Sorry, not sorry: “This model is intended to help make fast decisions, not predict the future”

You can’t make this up. The disclaimer is right there at the top of the website, designed by leftists, so you can select the state you live in to see the Graph of Death that isn’t real and they fully admit it isn’t true.

https://covidactnow.org/

Commentary from Madeline Osburn at The Federalist:

As U.S. state and local officials halt the economy and quarantine their communities over the Wuhan virus crisis, one would hope our leaders were making such major decisions based on well-sourced data and statistical analysis. That is not the case.

A scan of statements made by media, state governors, local leaders, county judges, and more show many relying on the same source, an online mapping tool called COVID Act Now. The website says it is “built to enable political leaders to quickly make decisions in their Coronavirus response informed by best available data and modeling.”

An interactive map provides users a catastrophic forecast for each state, should they wait to implement COVID Act Now’s suggested strict measures to “flatten the curve.” But a closer look at how many of COVID Act Now’s predictions have already fallen short, and how they became a ubiquitous resource across the country overnight, suggests something more sinister.

Founders of the site include Democratic Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and three Silicon Valley tech workers and Democratic activists — Zachary Rosen, Max Henderson, and Igor Kofman — who are all also donors to various Democratic campaigns and political organizations since 2016. Henderson and Kofman donated to the Hillary Clinton campaign in 2016, while Rosen donated to the Democratic National Committee, recently resigned Democratic Rep. Katie Hill, and other Democratic candidates. Prior to building the COVID Act Now website, Kofman created an online game designed to raise $1 million for the eventual 2020 Democratic candidate and defeat President Trump.

Perhaps the goal of COVID Act Now was never to provide accurate information, but to scare citizens and government officials into to implementing rash and draconian measures. The creators even admit as much with the caveat that “this model is designed to drive fast action, not predict the future.”

Full story here: https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/25/inaccurate-virus-models-are-panicking-officials-into-ill-advised-lockdowns/

The disclaimers at the Act Now website include the following:

What are the current limitations of the model?
  • Only a small fraction of the world has been infected. It’s a new disease. Variables will change.
  • R0s for interventions are guesses, in some cases informed by data. There is no historical precedent for what is going on right now to draw from.
  • The model does not adjust for the population density, culturally-determined interaction frequency and closeness, humidity, temperature, etc in calculating R0.
  • This is not a node-based analysis, and thus assumes everyone spreads the disease at the same rate. In practice, there are some folks who are “super-spreaders,” and others who are almost isolated.
  • Demographics, populations, and hospital bed counts are outdated. Demographics for the USA as a whole are used, rather than specific to each state.

I’m curious about the part where they say, “there is no historical precedent for what’s going on right now.” Are they talking about the COVID, or the response? If they are talking about COVID, what is it that makes this strain unlike anything else that has ever happened in the history of the world? What is it that made us totally destroy our economy for this? What piece of information was given to governments, NHL, NBA, PGA, NCAA, etc., that all of those organizations, in the span of one 24 hour day (12 March, I believe), decided to totally shut down everything?

9 thoughts on “Sorry, not sorry: “This model is intended to help make fast decisions, not predict the future”

  1. Data from Wyoming State Health Department is on hold for being recorded for regular seasonal influenza/pneumonia because “all resources have been diverted to COVID-19; so we will resume weekly reports on the regular flus in about a month”.

    So what do we learn from the data for the same time period in 2019? There were 2690 lab-reported cases of regular seasonal flus and 18 deaths for Influenza/Pneumonia for all of March 2019 in the whole state. As of this morning, there have been 94 lab-reported positive cases for COVID-19, 24 recoveries, and 0 deaths so far. Perhaps it would be instructive to post both sets of datas concurrently so as to give a less panic-inducing perspective to the public?

  2. thank you for asking perceptive questions. unfortunately no one will answer….which in and of itself says a lot.

  3. I think we are reaping the whirlwind for worshipping the god of science.

    I don’t know how many times I’ve heard the phrase: “the scientific consensus is ….”. So, we do whatever they (the scientis’s “consensus) say. They study. Speak. Computers collate … CONSENSUS! They are the Oracles.

    Your link frames how this is used. The charts are the cartoon images of “the scientific consensus” – which is nothing more than the communist consensus of politicians and tech nerds. Because there is no scientific consensus – certainly not that as framed in these (conveniently) interactive cartoon charts. So clean. So simple. So obvious. So dishonest. So wrong. They are as confused as any of us, but with vastly less common sense.

    God’s punishment fits the crime. We worship the god of science, science is our doom.

    1. It’s funny how the Lord seems to prefer just… letting the chickens come home to roost, when he decides to punish us. Really drives home how much, day-to-day, we live on His sufferance.

  4. Yeah I’m trying to operate based on facts, and I can’t tolerate one more prediction, not one.
    It’s all conjecture, and media is just doing what it always does, run with disasters. I don’t worry about the economy. I feel sure it will rebound, and people will re-invent themselves to make money. You can’t keep people down and the government will support it. I don’t worry about autocrats, unless Democrats are elected, but they are always totalitarians, which is why we can’t put them in office. Ever.
    Quarantine, pray, clean your closets, pray, read, pray, take a walk, pray, encourage others, pray.
    I’m working on trust, for my part. I vacuumed my car yesterday using a public car wash, and ate an orange afterward, forgetting to use sanitizer, which I’ve been methodical about. Yes, I’m mad at myself, but I can’t un-ring the bell. It’s helped me. I either trust God with my life or I don’t. If I get sick and die, I guess God is calling me home. Who am I to resist God. I’m a control freak, and found I can control very little. Very little.

    1. Same….I was curtious enough to pull a plastic bag (forgot my reuseables) from the stand at self check out, then licked my fingers to open the darn thing.

      1. Lol. I guess this scene is being repeated across the world, and our fellow man goes….awww….noooooo….

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